Spires Bracers Discussion (Split from Fortune Favors the Diverse - Bonus Raid Loot)
- Thread starter fxattack
- Start date
It is a 6.67% chance (1 out of 15) any individual class bracer if the drop rate is coded to be equal chance among the 15 classes.
Assuming equal chance (and that my statistics knowledge isn't completely rusted) that also means it is a 5.147% probability for 43 drops to not have a cleric bracer after that many attempts. (14/15)^43 calculates the probability of 43 occurrences of individual events having any class except cleric dropping. In other words there theoretically was a 94.853% probability one of those bracers would have a been a cleric bracer.
Smaller numbers to illustrate the point:
Coin toss. 0.5 odds it is Heads. Flip coin twice. 0.5 odds both times. 1/2 * 1/2 = 0.25 or 25% chance it is heads both times; so 0.75 or 75% chance it gets a Tails at least once.
Tails = cleric bracer. Instead of 1 out of 2 options, we have 1 out of 15. Instead of 2 tosses, we have 43 tosses.
That we are not the only guild with bad luck on cleric bracers leads me to believe either
1) they are not coded with even chance
or...
2) equal chance is intended but there's a flaw in the execution
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Moraelintz
Dalayan Elder
You obviously have never played roulette. Also, just wait till you have to worry about class tomes in Turruj.
Moraelintz
Dalayan Elder
Also you are not the only ones in spires. I know for a fact eternity has seen 2 if not 2 cleric bracers. Thus the probabilities are not as bad as you portray you are just getting the short end of the stick.
Silosobi
Dalayan Pious Diety
This is why huge RNG on core progression stuff is bad.
Class tomes are this only 100x worse. The loot table is 3x or 6x larger depending on how you look at it, and tomes are a larger, and irreplaceable progression item.
On the topic of spires bracers, I always liked it when you knew what mob dropped what bracers (but not having them be 100%), so that at least you can be like "hey, x mob is up, and y still needs their bracer, lets pull together and get that done!".
You can still have poor luck and it not drop, but that feels a lot better to me than it being totally random.
Class tomes are this only 100x worse. The loot table is 3x or 6x larger depending on how you look at it, and tomes are a larger, and irreplaceable progression item.
On the topic of spires bracers, I always liked it when you knew what mob dropped what bracers (but not having them be 100%), so that at least you can be like "hey, x mob is up, and y still needs their bracer, lets pull together and get that done!".
You can still have poor luck and it not drop, but that feels a lot better to me than it being totally random.
donfolstar3
Dalayan Master
Every word of this post is just terrible. Gamblers Fallacy. Old Fartery. Suggesting worrying over a game without pointing out how awful that is. Really epic stuff here.
Some reduction on the RNG awfulness would be just great. I vaguely remember Zaela or somebody claiming once it was possible to have loot tables check against who was in zone to only drop useable things which is just great. /sips coffee. This was in the context of cmal iirc, but if such a thing is possible then that would be just great.
darksabbath
Dalayan Master
Haven't been to cmal lately, have you? If that was the concept for the zone, it is broken, or set to only give armor for classes NOT in the zone.
Dinadass
Dalayan Pious Diety
That's how 4.3 drops weapons, nothing else in the zone (or the entire game?) works that way afaik.
darksabbath
Dalayan Master
ahh, wasn't thinking about 4.3 fight.
But man would that be great. Loot nobody can use is no fun!
