Let's take a look at chain nuking scenarios comparing the old 6 sec Nightfire to a 3.5 sec Nightfire and contrast that to mages using relic, archaic and relic rain. All cast times for druids are reduced 10% for quick dmg AAs. If they don't apply to nukes with cast times this low, someone please tell me.
Nightfire (new): 3.15 cast, 2.5 recast, 1500 dmg.
Nightfire (old): 5.4 cast, 2.5 recast, 1500 dmg.
Wrath of the Skies: 2.93 cast, 2.5 recast, 1510 dmg (outdoor only).
Flamestrike: 2.7 cast, 6.5 recast, 1225 dmg.
Bladewind: 5.75 cast, 0 recast, 2.5 sec fizzle, 1520 dmg.
Relic: Storm of the elements: 6 cast, 12 recast, 860 dmg.
Archaic: Sun Storm: 5.75 cast, 2.5 recast, 1745 dmg.
Old Nightfire:
Druid (outdoor):
Wrath, Wrath, Wrath, Wrath, Wrath, Wrath, Wrath, Wrath, Wrath, Wrath
Total cast time: (2.93 * 10) + (2.5 fizzle * 9) = 51.8 sec.
Total dmg: 1510 * 10 = 15100
Dps: 291.5
Druid (indoor):
Flamestrike, Nightfire, Flamestrike, Nightfire, Flamestrike, Nightfire, Flamestrike, Nightfire, Flamestrike, Nightfire
Total cast time: (5.4 * 5) + (2.7 * 5) + (2.5 * 9) = 63 sec
Total dmg: (1500 * 5) + (1225 * 5) = 13625
Dps: 216.3
New Nightfire:
Druid (outdoor):
Nightfire, Wrath, Nightfire, Wrath, Nightfire, Wrath, Nightfire, Wrath, Nightfire, Wrath.
Total cast time: (3.15 + 2.93) * 5 + (2.5 fizzle * 9) = 52.9 sec.
Total dmg: (1500 + 1510) * 5 = 15050
Dps: 284.5
Druid (indoor):
Nightfire, Flamestrike, Nightfire, Nightfire, Flamestrike, Nightfire, Nightfire, Flamestrike, Nightfire, Nightfire, Flamestrike
Total cast time: (3.15 * 7) + (2.7 * 4) + (2.5 * 10) = 57.85 sec
Total dmg: (1500 * 7) + (1225 * 4) = 15400
Dps: 266.2
Mage:
Mage (chaining archaic):
Archaic, Archaic, Archaic, Archaic, Archaic, Archaic, Archaic, Archaic
Total cast time: (5.75 * 8) + (2.5 * 7) = 63.5 sec
Total dmg: 1745 * 8 = 13960
Dps: 219.8 + 90 from relic pet = 309.8
Mage (nukes and relic rain):
Archaic, Rain, Archaic, Archaic, Rain, Archaic, Archaic
Total cast time: (5.75 * 5) + (6 * 2) + (2.5 * 6) = 55.75
Total dmg: (1745 * 5) + ((860 * 3) * 2) = 13885
Dps: 249.1 + 90 from relic pet = 339.1
Mage (chaining relic):
Bladewind, Bladewind, Bladewind, Bladewind, Bladewind, Bladewind, Bladewind, Bladewind
Total cast time: (5.75 * 8) + (2.5 * 7) = 63.5
Total dmg: 1520 * 8 = 12160
Dps: 191.5 + 90 from relic pet = 281.5
Mage (alternating relic nuke with relic rain):
Bladewind, Rain, Bladewind, Bladewind, Rain, Bladewind, Bladewind
Total cast time: (5.75 * 5) + (6 * 2) + (2.5 * 6) = 55.75
Total dmg: (1520 * 5) + ((860 * 3) * 2) = 12760
Dps: 228.9 + 90 from relic pet = 318.9
Summary:
Druid outdoor with old Nightfire: 291.5 (better to chain cast Wrath)
Druid indoor with old Nightfire: 216.3
Druid outdoor with new Nightfire: 284.5
Druid indoor with new Nightfire: 266.2
Mage (chaining archaic): 219.8 (not including ~90 from relic pet)
Mage (alternating archaic with relic rain): 249.1 (not including ~90 from relic pet)
Mage (chaining relic): 191.5 (not including ~90 from relic pet)
Mage (alternating relic with relic rain): 228.9 (not including ~90 from relic pet)
Conclusion:
Druids already outnuke mages when outdoors and almost beat them indoors. In fact, even if the mage chain nukes his ARCHAIC he can't outdps a druid outdoors without his pet. If the cast time on Nightfire is reduced and mage nukes do not receive a substantial decrease in cast times and/or an increase in base dmg then mages will be totally obsolete except when summoned items are needed. Even before any changes are made to Nightfire, the dps difference between druids and mages is so close that a raid can't justify bringing a mage unless they are already full of druids. This is clearly borne out by the mathematical data presented above.
Edit: forgot to reduce old Nightfire for quick dmg cast time of 5.4. Numbers updated.