First I'd like to state that I'm fully aware that the combine success is rather low (40% success is the consensus of what i've heard). So far I've gathered the components three times and my tailor has failed each time. They've also failed countless other times on what others have gathered and haven't heard of a successful combine in a long time and haven't heard of any of the other 250 tailors having a successful combine lately also. Perhaps maybe the combine has becomed bugged or the success rate has dropped? Possibly if this could be tested some how it would be great, I dont want to camp all this stuff again and more than likely fail again if the combine is bugged.
Mantle of the Forest
- Thread starter kluxor
- Start date
If the success rate is approx 40%, there would be about a 20% change well 21.6% change that you'd fail it 3 times in a row. Though that being said I really think the success rate on this item considering the nerf of the drop rate of components should be set nearer to 60% but that being said stuff that is "common knowledge" isn't always true and you could just be really unlucky 
brasileira
Dalayan Elder
statistics
shebearcub
Dalayan Beginner
In the last 11 I've tried to combine only 2 have succeeded.
On the other hand only 1 failure in 5 combines for a robe of flowing water.
On the other hand only 1 failure in 5 combines for a robe of flowing water.
Thinkmeats
War Is Good For Business
I love how people are asking for large statistical samples on the super-rare, very costly Mantle of the Forest combine. What are the tradeskillers supposed to do, just close their eyes and wish really hard for enough components to do tests?
Allielyn
*Pony*
Well also, you have to consider how often the failure rate was before hand and how many samples you had to draw from a statistically significant population there, too.
In other words, 40% success rate may actually have been higher than the real probability, but the sample was too small to tell.
In other words, 40% success rate may actually have been higher than the real probability, but the sample was too small to tell.
vistachiri
Dalayan Master
Given the rarity of the components themselves the combine success rate is pretty disappointing. Perhaps I've just been unlucky but the only giant asp skin ive ever gotten came before the rate was lowered. In the past week alone I'd say I've killed a minimum of 40 of the snakes. Not one skin. Not sure on the ancient treant leaves because really I'm not going to bother going for the mantle unless I happen to get all the components in the course soloing in the plaguelands and the occasional run through shadowdale (as those mobs are also a pain in the ass to find for a nontracker), it's a good piece of gear sure, but the time spent on it for most people would simply be better spent farming for a charm. Going by the seeming market rate of what I've seen the skins for, with only buying them rurho would have spent 10k on the skins..alone (w/a 1k price obv, though actual value based on how rare they seem is probably more like 1.5-2k). Its a pretty nice piece, but it isn't really worth 10k for just a shot (and apparently a not very good one) at it. But since I generally solo in that area anyways I'll start keeping an accurate tracking of how many asps I've nailed.
If those above rates are standard I wouldnt think people who know the success rate and amount of time required to invest in farming would even bother.
If those above rates are standard I wouldnt think people who know the success rate and amount of time required to invest in farming would even bother.
shebearcub
Dalayan Beginner
Wiz said:
So the numbers are right then and the mantle is numbers are correct and where they should be in the balance of tailored items?
2 success per 11 tries / mantle
4 success per 5 tries / robe of flowing water
(These examples are my personal and recent experiance making the top two tailored items in the game.)